The Federal Reserve is playing a game of “red light, green light” when it comes to cutting interest rates.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s decision-making body voted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, pausing a rate-cutting path that was green-lighted in September.
Does that mean average mortgage rates will be stuck near 7% for the short term? It all depends on one factor: the economy.
Since starting his second term, President Donald Trump is moving forward on some of his policies around immigration and trade, which experts see as inflationary.
“Higher tariffs and restrictive immigration policies would increase costs for homebuyers at a time when affordability is near a four-decade low,” said Matt Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
While Trump has repeatedly said he’ll bring mortgage rates down to 3% (which would indicate the country is in a severe economic crisis), the president doesn’t set rates on home loans. Even the Fed’s policy decisions only indirectly impact the mortgage market.
Regardless of the president’s promise to lower borrowing costs, if inflation remains high, so will rates. Mortgage rates are primarily driven by movement in the bond market, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield. If inflation ends up cooling and the Fed resumes easing rates, Treasury yields and mortgage rates could drop, even in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.
Why is the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts?
During his remarks following the Jan. 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials aren’t in a hurry to lower interest rates and that the central bank is waiting to see if inflation eases. Standing pat allows the Fed to evaluate the impact of policies enacted by the Trump administration.
It’s logical to assume today’s decision will result in an extended pause rather than a one-month skip. Matt Graham of Mortgage News Daily says that if inflation drops significantly over the next two months, the earliest possible rate cut would be in March. However, most investors are betting another rate reduction won’t come until late spring or early summer.
The Fed is already facing pressure from Trump, who recently demanded that interest rates drop, even though the president doesn’t have the direct power to carry that out. Aside from voicing his opinions, the president’s influence over the central bank is through naming appointees to fill vacancies on the Board of Governors.
Though Trump could appoint Fed board members whose views on monetary policy align with his own, he can only make new appointments in early 2026.
Will mortgage rates go down in time for spring homebuying season?
Earlier last year, many economists optimistically predicted that interest rates would dip to 6% by late 2024. But since Trump’s reelection and the Fed’s shift away from rate cuts, the forecast for mortgage rates has been more pessimistic.
Fannie Mae now expects average 30-year fixed mortgage rates to hold above 6.5% until early 2025. Meanwhile, Moody’s Walsh predicts mortgage rates to average just below 7% throughout the year.
Still, next month’s economic data could always change the equation. “If the economic data starts to weaken, we may have already seen the peak rates for the year,” said Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire.
In CNET’s 2025 mortgage forecast, Mohtashami noted that rates in the low-6% range are still possible in 2025. However, if Trump’s policies recharge inflation or boost government debt deficits, this will be difficult to achieve, particularly in time for the spring homebuying season.
A look at the 2025 housing market
Today’s unaffordable housing market results from high mortgage rates, a long-standing housing shortage, expensive home prices and a loss of purchasing power due to inflation.
🏠 Low housing inventory: A balanced housing market typically has five to six months of supply. Most markets today average around half that amount. According to Freddie Mac, we still have a shortage of around 3.7 million homes.
🏠 Elevated mortgage rates: In early 2022, mortgage rates hit historic lows of around 3%. As inflation surged and the Fed hiked interest rates to tame it, mortgage rates more than doubled. In 2025, mortgage rates are still high, pricing millions of prospective buyers out of the housing market.
🏠 Rate-lock effect: Since the majority of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 5%, they’re reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates and have little incentive to list their homes for sale, leaving a dearth of resale inventory.
🏠 High home prices: Although home buying demand has been limited in recent years, home prices remain high because of a lack of inventory. The median US home price was $427,179 in December, up 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Redfin.
🏠 Steep inflation: Inflation means an increase in the cost of basic goods and services, reducing purchasing power. It also impacts mortgage rates: When inflation is high, lenders typically raise interest rates on consumer loans to ensure a profit.
What homebuyers should know
It’s never a good idea to rush into buying a home without knowing what you can afford, so establish a clear home-buying budget. Here’s what experts recommend before purchasing a home:
💰 Build your credit score. Your credit score will help determine whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. A credit score of 740 or higher will help you qualify for a lower rate.
💰 Save for a bigger down payment. A larger down payment allows you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from your lender. If you can afford it, a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate private mortgage insurance.
💰 Shop for mortgage lenders. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. Experts recommend getting at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders.
💰 Consider renting. Choosing to rent or buy a home isn’t just comparing monthly rent to a mortgage payment. Renting offers flexibility and lower upfront costs, but buying allows you to build wealth and have more control over your housing costs.
💰 Consider mortgage points. You can get a lower mortgage rate by buying mortgage points, with each point costing 1% of the total loan amount. One mortgage point equals a 0.25% decrease in your mortgage rate.
More on today’s housing market
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